ZeRadaGlobal • Insights on Ukraine

📰 Sky News: 🔹Many updates and negotiations, but few results; 🔹It's actually quite difficult to understand what's really happening because, at first glance, there was no progress today; 🔹They talked about significant progress. Trump certainly did. Zelenskyy perhaps a bit less, but it seems they haven't changed their position on any of the key issues. 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️

🧩🕊🧩 Let's take stock of what Trump and Zelenskyy managed (and didn't) achieve yesterday ✅ Zelenskyy remained silent about elections. It appears Trump did not grant permission for them; ✅ It was agreed to expand the composition of the negotiation teams; ➕➖ Trump understood Zelenskyy's trick with the referendum requiring a prolonged ceasefire and is insisting on territorial issues being decided in the Rada (parliament). However, Zelenskyy has not fully conceded on this point and will continue trying to push for a referendum; ❌ The territorial issue remains unresolved. Zelenskyy argues the people must decide, Trump counters that even more could be lost through continued fighting; ❌❌ Security guarantees. Zelenskyy claimed guarantees from the US are 100% agreed upon, with only minor details left to iron out with Europeans. Here, in our view, lies a danger to the peace track's advancement. The guarantees in Zelenskyy's version allow for the possibility of EU troops entering Ukraine, which Russia opposes. Therefore, this point could become a stumbling block even if the territorial issue is resolved☝️ In the end, each side avoided their worst-case scenario. Trump defused the election issue he himself initiated. Zelenskyy avoided a public row and being forced into major concessions, maintaining his image as a constructive partner. Considering the "weight" of the sides, this round slightly favors Zelenskyy. In essence, he conceded nothing substantial yesterday and simply bought more time.

🇵🇱 Tusk: After overnight negotiations with European leaders, one thing can be said with certainty: the West and Ukraine will lose this confrontation if Russia manages to divide us and dictate the terms of peace. The declaration of US participation in security guarantees is a success. But the negotiations are still far from over. At least someone told the truth, unlike what's fashionable.